عملیات ضد کارتل ایالات متحده در خارج از ایالات متحده تا ۳۱ دسامبر؟
هماکنون · مهلت: ۱ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۷
این بازار تسویه شده است.
بله
همهٔ مهلتهای این پرسش به پایان رسیده است.
قیمت چطور حرکت کرده
در ۲۷ مهر بازار این احتمال را 75٪ میدانست.
۲۷ مهراکنون 99%
همهٔ مهلتها تا امروز
Polymarket این پرسش را با مهلتهای پیاپی دوباره فهرست میکند. هر ردیف یکی از آن مهلتهاست، همراه با نتیجهای که گرفت.
- ۱ نوامبر ۲۰۲۶آیا عملیات ضد کارتل ایالات متحده در خارج از ایالات متحده تا ۳۱ اکتبر انجام خواهد شد؟بله$165K
- ۱ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۷فعلیعملیات ضد کارتل ایالات متحده در خارج از ایالات متحده تا ۳۱ دسامبر؟بله$20K
این بازار چطور تسویه میشود
قواعد زیر تعیین میکند چه کسی پول میگیرد. پیش از نگاه کردن به قیمت، اینها را بخوانید — بیشتر غافلگیریها ریشهٔ تعریفی دارند، نه پیشبینیای.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
"U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity.
An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named.
“Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify.
A qualifying anti-cartel operation refers to an operation in which U.S. personnel are physically present as part of the force directly engaging cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel.U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force carrying out or attempting a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Such presence qualifies regardless of whether U.S. personnel themselves enter the target site or carry out the action. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count unless the requirement for physical presence at the target site or its immediate perimeter as part of the force conducting the qualifying action is met.
Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel target located on foreign soil. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Kinetic actions that consist primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying kinetic action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.
The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materiall…
راهنماها
مطالبی که بهتر است پیش از معامله روی این بازار بخوانید.
- مقایسهپلی مارکت یا کالشی؟ تفاوت واقعی کجاستکالشی دلار را از مسیر بانک آمریکا میگیرد و پلی مارکت با USDC روی بلاکچین تسویه میکند. همین یک تفاوت، کارمزد و دسترسی و سرنوشت پول تو را تعیین میکند.
- راهنماقبل از قیمت، شرایط تسویه را بخوانیدبیشتر غافلگیریهای زمان تسویه ربطی به پیشبینی ندارند؛ ربطشان به تعریف است. دربارهٔ دنیا درست فکر کردهاید و دربارهٔ اینکه بازار چه چیزی را میشمارد، اشتباه.
- راهنمابازار چطور تسویه میشود و پول کِی به دستتان میرسد؟کسی نتیجه را پیشنهاد میدهد و وثیقه میگذارد. هرکسی تا دو ساعت میتواند اعتراض کند. بازارهای بدون اعتراض همان روز پرداخت میشوند؛ بازارهای مورد اختلاف چند روز طول میکشند.
این بازار را از تلگرام دنبال کنید، یا همانجا موضع بگیرید.
باز کردن در تلگرامقیمت در تاریخ 2026-11-01 16:26 UTC · منبع: Polymarket